Who cares about Hillary's health?

Can the alleged Hillary Health Scandal change anybody's mind? You may want to think about this if you have any prediction market investments like I do. Luckily I have some insurance against Trump winning as well. But it's led me to ask:

Who are the people that would vote for Healthy Hillary over Trump but Trump over Sick Hillary?

In other words... who is the "marginal voter" with respect to the health issue.

In these darkest of political times, few would be willing to defend the idea that political opinions conform to some underlying logic. I certainly would not.

Since we don't live in a perfect world we keep hearing about Hillary's health. Are there any real implications of the argument she has a particular - even chronic - illness? If Hillary died or was unconscious sick, then Tim Kaine would become president kind of like when Dick Cheney was for a few hours during Bush's surgery (Yikes!). If a person prefers (Healthy Hillary > Trump) but also ((Trump > Sick Hillary) & (Trump > Tim Kaine)), what could that person possibly be thinking? Are there any of them out there?

I do not support Hillary or any other politician, but it's fascinating to think about whether it makes a lick of difference. It's easy for a voter to say something like, "You can't command and be chief if you're debilitatingly ill." As the Washington Post points out, Republicans are trying to say she has some kind of serious, potentially long-term illness. The New York Post editorial board snarkily pointed to potential memory problems related to her FBI investigation and suggested she may die. Someone in the Trump campaign claimed she may die pretty soon. Overall the news suggests speculative impacts on her job performance and mostly potential death.

All or nearly all of Hillary's supporters would vote for a sick or nearly-dead Hillary over Trump every day of the week. In fact, many Hillary supporters and maybe even some Trump supporters have the following preferences:

Democratic Voter's Preferences

Hillary > Tim Kaine > Mike Pence > Trump

A reasonable Republican voter has these preferences:

Republican Voter's Preferences

Trump > Pence > Kaine > Hillary

But when Hillary is sick or dies the theoretical Democrats obviously prefer Tim Kaine.

Hillary > Tim Kaine > Mike Pence > Trump

The news fiascos over Hillary's health seem to imply that there are at least some poeple of the following type:

Preferences Posited by the Hillary Health Conspiracy

Hillary > Trump > Mike Pence > Tim Kaine

You didn't read that wrong, it says "I prefer Hillary best but then Trump and Mike Pence and Tim Kaine is the worst."

There are at least two, probably very microscopically tiny types of people who could actually care about Hillary's life prospects in the 2016 election. The most realistic would, I think, be Absolute Tim Kaine Haters. To these theoretical people, who may or may not exist, Tim Kaine is just the worst person in the world - certainly a much worse politician than either Hillary or Trump and maybe even worse than Mike Pence. If Hillary croaked leaving Tim Kaine in charge, people like this would be having the worst day possible, politically.

The second type of theoretical person who cares is Republican First-Woman-President Maximizers. Maybe some Republican people call themselves "Progressives" because they truly, in their heart of hearts want to see the first woman president in their lifetimes. But if Hillary dies, defecting to the Democratic party will not be worth it anymore so they will vote on the margin of this issue for Trump. But he or she would need to believe that Hillary would literally die before the inauguration. Or they might think that if she dies mid-term then the historical significance of her election would be significantly diminished. Although seemingly bizarre, Hillary's polls and prediction market value did decrease slightly and probably because of the health news. That doesn't necessarily mean Trump is doing well.

Of course, probably no one will vote for or against either candidate on account of their health. Instead, Hillary's health fits into the narrative that she is hiding things and pulling strings "from behind closed doors," and that the "liberal mainstream media" is catering to her. The counter was to paint that narrative as "conspiratorial," "wacky," for crazy people, and also blaming Russia. The rage continues because these propagandas are feeding back on each other.

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Leave a comment about whether you think those people exist or if you thought of your own explanation for the posited preferences.